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Sotheby's Shares Fall Amid Concern About Art Market

2008-10-07 13:58:31 Philip Boroff

Sotheby's shares fell as much as 21 percent on concern that the art market may tank as the worldwide financial crisis deepens.

Sotheby's shares dropped $2.38, or 14 percent, to $14.64 as of 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. While the shares recovered at the end of the day with the rest of the market, they remain at their lowest since July 2005.

Bank of America analyst Dana Cohen reduced third quarter profit estimates from $2.55 to $2.40 after disappointing auctions in Asia. At Sotheby's sale of 20th-century Chinese art yesterday in Hong Kong, two-thirds of the lots went unsold.

``With markets facing such turmoil and the financial crisis spreading to emerging markets, the fall-off in the art market is not surprising,'' Cohen wrote in a note to clients. ``However, it is a sharp reversal of even two weeks ago when the Damien Hirst auction was a bonanza in London.''

On Sept. 15 and 16, 98 percent of the lots sold at a $199 million Sotheby's sale of Hirst's works.

Cohen wrote that ``this shows that the fall-off has finally hit even the highest of the uber luxury consumer.''

Sotheby's shares have lost 27 percent this month, three times the percentage drop of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Last week, private dealer Josh Baer wrote in his ``Baer Faxt'' newsletter that he's turned from a bull to a bear on the art market.

``I expect that fire-sale prices may be happening or just people taking deep discount on works,'' he wrote. ``Overall prediction: 30 percent less volume at prices up to 30 percent less.''

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