This autumn the correction of prices has been drastic. The most significant symptom of the crisis was the slowdown in auction sales: the rate of unsold works has more than doubled in one year, from 25% to 54% in October 2008.

The art market is not at its first correction. The trade in Impressionist paintings - recognised as safe investments in the art market - is an excellent indicator of the fundamental direction of art market. The first major correction occurred between 1973 and 1975: after the so-called "first oil crisis", the prices of Impressionist works lost 54% having progressed 117% over the 1965-1971 period. The second correction was sharper. After an upward movement of 602% between 1982 and 1990, largely driven by speculative buying, Impressionist works lost 55% of their value over the following 3 years. A recovery began in 2005 and by 2008 prices in the segment had doubled back to their 1989-1990 levels. The figure-head of Impressionism, Claude MONET, who recorded his best ever auction price in the summer sales of 2008, has not escaped the autumn meltdown.

In the ranking of artists by auction sales revenue, Claude MONET is frequently in the top ten. At the end of 2007, his total auction sales revenue for the year amounted to USD 165 million, largely due to the sale of museum pieces like Waterloo Bridge, temps couvert (1904) for GBP 16 million (over USD 31.6 million) at Christie’s and Nymphéas which fetched GBP 16.5 million at Sotheby’s (nearly USD 32.7 million). 2008 was an other exceptional year for Monet with sales revenue from oil paintings alone amounted to USD 175 million.

The good health of the art market up until September 2008 and the competition between Sotheby’s and Christie’s - with both sides offering guaranteed prices - attracted a number of major works to the auction rooms including Monet's Le bassin aux nymphéas (1919) which appeared on the auction easel in June 2008. The work doubled its low estimate and set a new record for Monet when the hammer fell at GBP 36.5 million (close to USD 72 million). Five months later, none of the Monet oil paintings sold at Christie’s or Sotheby’s reached their low estimate. But the crisis really began to be felt when Sotheby’s bought in a major work by Monet that is considered a symbol of Impressionism: La cathédrale dans le brouillard, one of the famous series of eighteen frontal views of Rouen Cathedral, was offered with a price estimate of 16 to 22 million dollars. The most recent painting of comparable quality in this series sold for the equivalent of USD 10.93 million. That was in London at Christie’s in 1995 and the work was Cathédrale de Rouen, effet d'après-midi (Le Portail, plein soleil).

Hence, with the economic crisis putting an end to speculative buying, the price of a Rouen Cathedral view by Monet has not doubled between 1995 and 2008. Collectors are now more prudent and wary of overpaying their acquisitions. The price estimates for works offered in 2009 will be substantially lower, offering more sober buy opportunities.