In an uncertain climate, the auctioneers Christie’s and Sotheby’s have decided to reduce the number of works on sale at their Impressionist and Modern art sales, and instead to emphasise quality. Sotheby’s evening sale of Impressionist & Modern Art this coming 3 February will offer a lean selection of 27 lots, a third of the works up for auction at last year's sale on the same theme.

Christie’s is following suit the next day, cutting by half the number of lots for sale (47) compared with the same date last year. Among the most sought-after works, Edgar DEGAS was to the fore at Sotheby’s, Claude MONET at Christie’s.

The Degas much awaited at Sotheby’s forthcoming evening sale on 3 February is his legendary sculpture of the 14-year-old girl dancer: the Petite Danseuse de 14 ans. This emblematic work was purchased under the same auctioneer’s hammer five years ago. At that time, on 3 February 2004, the bidding was taken to GBP 4.5 million. Today’s estimate is GBP 9–12 million. Sotheby’s is hoping to achieve a new record on this topic, well above the GBP 7 million reached in 2000. The optimistic expectation of GBP 12 million is based on a 67% rise in the Degas general price index (from January 2001 to January 2009) and on that auctioneer’s recent record sale for USD 33 million of the artist’s Danseuse au repos (equivalent to GBP 20.58 million). This 1879 mixed-medium work was sold at Sotheby’s earlier Impressionist auctions in November 2008.

Among the other flagship lots at Sotheby’s, an expressionist Ernst Ludwig KIRCHNER emblazons the catalogue cover: Strassenszene (Street scene) is expected to fetch GBP 5–7 million. A similar, but far larger-scale work, painted by the artist the same year, achieved the record sale for a Kirchner of USD 34 million, equivalent to GBP 17.8 million. The estimate for the Amedeo MODIGLIANI canvas Cariatide is GBP 6–8 million. An ambitious price range since, previously, the artist’s most hard-won cariatide had been knocked down at GBP 3.1 million in June 2006 at Christie's in London. By contrast, pricing for Fernand LÉGER’s La partie de campagne has been drastically pruned. On 12 May 2008, Sotheby’s had been hoping to make USD 12 million but could find no buyer at the price. For the coming 3 February sale, the estimate has been halved (GBP 4 million, equivalent to USD 5.5 million).

The success hoped for the Christie’s sale on 4 February relies on two works by the Impressionist leader, Claude MONET: La Promenade d’Argenteuil (1872) and Dans la Prairie (1876). If sold well, these two canvases could net more than GBP 20 million. The more finely-crafted Dans la Prairie features the artist’s wife, Camille. Portrayed wearing a hat, with a sun-umbrella beside her, she is absorbed in her reading, surrounded by a haze of meadow flowers. The subject comprehensively embraces biographical and intimiste treatment in a landscape setting. It was hung in 1877 at the third Impressionist exhibition. While its quality and pedigree cannot help but attract keen buyer interest, its GBP 15 million estimate is nevertheless widely optimistic. This is by no means Dans la Prairie’s first acquaintance with the auctioneer’s hammer: it was awarded for the equivalent of GBP 8.6 million to a 1999 bidder at Sotheby’s. Also on the Christie’s catalogue for that event are: an Édouard VUILLARD Nabi canvas, Les Couturières, for an estimated GBP 5.5–7.5 million; the depiction of two reclining women by Henri TOULOUSE-LAUTREC de in L’abandon (Les deux amies), forecast to raise GBP 5–7 million; and Amedeo MODIGLIANI’s portrayal of two girls in Les deux filles, seeking a sale for GBP 3.5–5.5 million.

The results of these sales will benchmark the price trend for Impressionist and Modern works in 2009. In late 2007 and early 2008, the Impressionist index was at its highest, regaining in January 2008 the price levels reached during the 1990 bubble. Since that high, history appears to have repeated itself, with a sharp downtrend re-aligning prices in January 2009 on 1991 figures. That year, prices had plummeted, registering a 55% fall over two years.