作者：Thomas Stauffer, 瑞士苏黎世 Gerber Stauffer Fine Arts 合伙人 （图片提供：Thomas Stauffer）

这篇文章的标题源自美国摇滚乐队R.E.M于1987年发行的专辑中的一首歌。这首歌的全名是“ 我们熟悉的世界将不复存在（但我无所畏惧）”，我认为，鉴于我们正经历的前所未有的可怕处境，这首歌的题目相当贴切。从长远来看，这场灾难可能会解放和变革我们现在生活的时代。

经济学家一致认为，全球经济正处于衰退之中，这可能是西方有史以来在没有战争影响的情况下最严重的衰退。一些专家甚至更进一步预测，我们将目睹自1930年代“经济大萧条”以来最严重的经济衰退。与“新冠病毒”大流行相比，1970年代的石油危机，9/11事件的惨痛经历和2008年雷曼兄弟银行（Lehman Brothers）的倒闭，可能远不如我们今天所面临的局面更有戏剧性。除了要经历痛苦而漫长的经济逆转期，我们都将面临一个有许多限制的新世界：保持社交距离，各种旅行限制，许多国家的航空公司停飞或破产，甚至导致当地机场不能再继续运行。在“新冠”之后，我们可能进入一个全新的‘去全球化’时期，共同面临诸多未知的后果。

“新冠”危机对艺术界有什么影响？

前景黯淡：据著名艺术品经纪人及画廊主多米尼克·莱维（Dominique Lévy）称，画廊的艺术品销售额下降了约90%。即使可能略有偏差，但这仍然是一个令人瞠目结舌的数字。上周，一位来自纽约的著名收藏家在电话中告诉我：“这场灾难将使许多画廊倒闭。”

由于疫情，几乎全球所有的博物馆和画廊都被迫对公众临时关闭，何时再次开放还不确定。所以很有可能一些艺术专业群体因为经济原因无法维持经营而完全消失。中小型画廊本来就已经很难生存，许多将永远关闭。一些所谓的“年轻超级明星”艺术家的代理画廊手中的收藏等待名单一夜之间消失不见，从一画难求变成有现货可供挑选。

画廊通常有巨额的运营成本，不但展览场地租金昂贵，工作人员的薪水也不菲。如果人们不能现场品鉴艺术品，藏家不能来买作品，他们怎么可能照常支付房租和员工的工资？据我们了解，目前画廊的普遍单幅作品交易价格区间为数千美元至十万美元之间。如今，即使是国际最大的画廊，超过20万美元的交易也被视为“可观的”交易。

毫无疑问，像高古轩（Gagosian），豪瑟沃斯（Hauser & Wirth），卓纳（David Zwirner）这样的大型画廊以及市场稳健的蓝筹“明星”艺术家们当然会在这场疫情中幸免于难。尽管其中一些画廊已经因为艺术行业面临的现实困境而不得不解雇一些员工或者大幅减少员工薪酬，但这些画廊有足够的财力来应对危机。总体来说，疫情会导致超级画廊与其他中小型画廊的差距越来越大。对不太知名的画廊及艺术家来说，获得经济可行并有效的市场机遇将越来越难。

艺术行业面临巨大损失，程度取决于这场全球性的健康危机会持续多久。但那些最敏捷的应对危机、最开放的面对变化的画廊、艺术家及全球艺术生态的参与者，将给受创的行业带来希望。创造力将成为决定性的生存特质，幸运的是，这正是我们每个人都拥有的。

艺术博览会是怎样的情形呢？

目前全球有大小艺博会300余个。伴随疫情暴发，欧洲艺术和古董博览会（TEFAF）和 Frieze 都取消了原定5月份在纽约举办的艺博会，欧洲许多小型艺博会也面临同样的命运。全球当代艺博会之首：瑞士的巴塞尔艺博会，将毫无疑问地进行下去。其他的艺博会品牌如 TEFAF 、Frieze（至少Frieze Masters）也会继续下去。因为短时间内国际收藏家群体应该不愿冒着长途旅行的风险参观国外的艺博会，这给区域性定位良好的较小型艺术博览会带来更多机遇，如马德里的Arco艺博会、上海的西岸艺博会和 ART021 都会在“新冠”后继续顺利开展，甚至会变得更强更好。

目前，世界正处于强制冬眠状态。大部分地区的艺术品线下市场活动计划于今年9月恢复，瑞士巴塞尔艺博会也从每年的6月推迟到9月，目前9月的日程表已堆满了遍布世界各地的双年展、拍卖会和艺博会。然而，如果西方主要国家不能学习中国和亚洲其它地区的成功经验迅速控制住疫情，所有这些活动都有可能被取消，因而今年也许不会再举行任何艺术展、大型拍卖会或双年展。所以未来的数周或数月将决定之后艺术市场的走向。

拍卖行将如何应对这场深刻的全球危机，以及危机过后他们的前景如何？

尽管全球各主要拍卖行被目前的疫情严重挫伤，但他们应该能够在疫情稳定后迅速恢复业务。他们的部分业务已经通过在线拍卖实现了数字化，这一转变的商业意义在当下更加突出。但是，如果没有拍卖现场的所有参与者营造的激动人心的气氛，高额价值的拍卖还能存在吗？线上拍卖无法取代现场拍卖，很难想象未来短时间内，在看不到实物的情况下，收藏家们会愿意支付成百上千万美元从网上竞拍或购买陌生的艺术品。

拍卖行应对当下疫情另一个直接的反应是，把较高价值的交易业务重点放在了私人洽购的销售上。原定于5月在纽约举行的一系列重要现场拍卖要么被推迟到6月，要么完全取消。而那些原计划在拍卖会上送拍的艺术品很多被转送到拍卖行的私洽部门。然而，私洽交易是相对于公开拍卖更耗时的业务，这意味着拍卖行永远无法通过增加私洽交易的收入来弥补其主营拍卖业务遭受的损失。对大多数拍卖行而言，短期和中期的销售策略是私人洽购和在线拍卖的结合。

旅行限制或旅行焦虑在未来一段时间内致使我们无法轻松地去观看国际艺术展览，因此艺术展览形式将转向数字化或区域性活动。

我们将看到更多的虚拟博物馆和画廊展览。大多数画廊、艺术博览会和博物馆已经在争先恐后地开发在线展览平台。尤其是画廊，他们正在为开发线上展厅投入巨资。收藏家们将在网上竞购他们想要的艺术品，并在Instagram上观看他们最喜欢的策展人和画廊主的现场对话。任何一名收藏家、艺术爱好者和美术馆爱好者，都将可以通过自己的口袋里的智能手机畅游艺术世界。比如尝试通过虚拟现实（VR）和增强现实（AR）的工具访问纽约的MoMA。虽然这些数字体验的尝试还没有形成标准，但显然，这将改变我们在国际视觉文化和交流的新模式中体验艺术的方式。

即使上述有些描述表明当前国际艺术市场的现状相当严峻，但总体而言，我非常肯定，艺术品市场将从低谷中走出来，甚至比以前更加繁荣强劲，呈现新的方式和布局。

病毒不会消除我们对艺术和文化的好奇心。当我们回顾2008/09年雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破产以及随后的全球金融危机时，艺术品市场迅速复苏，2011年拍卖和私人洽购的顶级艺术品价格就再次飙升。

是的，世界正处于封锁之中，但从积极的一面看，我们可以腾出时间，被迫重新思考我们每个人作为全球社群中一份子的未来。现在的时间应用于设想，而不是浪费在绝望。“新冠危机”将如何改变我们这个社会？这取决于我们是否能从中更多的体会深思、谦逊、敏感、体恤他人的美好品质。我相信，艺术可以在这些方面发挥重要作用。

——Thomas Stauffer，苏黎世，2020年4月29日

作者简介：

托马斯·斯托弗（瑞士） (Thomas Stauffer) 

瑞士格斯艺术收藏创始合伙人，资深艺术收藏家，自十六岁起便开始他的私人艺术收藏。凭借近三十年丰厚的个人收藏经验，及对国际艺术市场行情的准确判断，遍布全球的人脉网络和低调严谨的行为方式，使他成为业内广受尊重的一级专家，分别为来自欧洲，北美及南美洲的重要私人藏家、基金会和公共艺术机构在全球范围内搜寻稀缺珍贵的艺术作品，尤其擅长从非公开的私人收藏中搜寻艺术精品。

瑞士格斯艺术收藏的办公及私人展示空间位于瑞士苏黎世市中心，是一家专注西方现代，战后和国际当代大师作品的顶级艺术私洽和顾问机构。我们在全球范围内为重要个人和机构收藏提供从单件作品甄选到整体收藏管理的全面专业服务，自主或代理客户购买和销售从19世纪末到现在的重要作品。机构客户包括欧洲著名基金会，国家级美术馆和国际企业艺术收藏。受邀为数家世界顶级私人银行和家族办公室客户提供专业艺术收藏及投资咨询服务。

以下是英文原文 （The original text below in English）

It’s the End of the World as We Know It

The art world after the Corona-crisis will be very different.

The title of this article refers to a song by the American rock band R.E.M from their 1987 album Document. The full title of the song is “It’s the End of the World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)” which, I think, is quite fitting given the unprecedented and frightening, but maybe in the very long run also liberating, times we currently live in.

Economists agree that the global economy is in recession, possibly the deepest that has ever been measured in the West without the effects of war. Some go even further and predict that we will witness the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. In comparison with the Corona pandemic, the effects of the oil crisis in the 1970s, the traumatic experience of 9/11 and the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 were probably much less dramatic than what we are facing today. In addition to a very prolonged and painful economic reversal, we all find ourselves in a new world with many restrictions. Social distancing, travel restrictions, deserted airports many of which, with their home airlines grounded or bankrupt, can no longer be operated economically. After Covid-19 we might enter a new period of deglobalisation with an unknown outcome and impact for all of us.

What’s the impact of the Covid-19 crisis for the art world?

The outlook is bleak: According to Dominique Lévy, a prominent art dealer, art sales in galleries are down by up to 90%. While possibly exaggerated, this is still a rather mind blowing figure. “It will kill many galleries”, a renowned collector from New York told me last week on the phone. Most museums and galleries around the world are closed due to the global epidemic and it’s uncertain when they will be open again to the public. It’s entirely possible that some art scenes and communities will be economically wiped out. Small and mid-sized galleries already struggle to survive and many will close forever. Waiting lists for so called “emerging or in demand” artists evaporate overnight and all of a sudden access abounds...

Galleries often have huge overheads with expensive rent of their exhibition spaces and salaries to pay for the staff. How can they pay the rent and their employee’s if buyers aren’t buying and people aren’t seeing art? The gallery transactions which we still hear about are mostly at the price range of few thousand to 100’000 US- Dollars. Deals above 200’000 USD are today considered “substantial” transactions even by the largest galleries.

Mega galleries like Gagosian, Hauser & Wirth, David Zwirner as well as very established “star artists” will, of course, survive the Corona pandemic, there is no doubt about that. These galleries have the financial means to sit out the crisis, even if some of them already have had to fire people due to the new reality in the Art World. As a consequence, the gap between the mega galleries and everyone else (smaller and mid-sized galleries) is going to widen and finding an economically viable niche will become even harder for less well-known artists and galleries.

The art world will see terrible losses. A lot depends on how long this global health crisis lasts. But there is hope: those galleries, artists and other participants of the global art community who are most agile and open to change will survive. Creativity will become the decisive survival trait and fortunately we all carry it within us.

What’s happening with all the art fairs? There are currently more than 300 art fairs around the world. Tefaf and Frieze have both cancelled their New York edition scheduled in May, like many smaller art fairs in Europe. Art Basel, the mother of all art fairs, will without a doubt survive, together with with Tefaf and Frieze or, at least, Frieze Masters. Regionally well positioned smaller art fairs like Arco Madrid, Westbund Shanghai and Art021 might come out of the Covid-19 aftermath stronger as well since collectors might not want to take the risk to be stuck in a full airplane for several hours.

At the moment the world is in a state of enforced hibernation. The resumption of art market activities in most regions is planned for September 2020, and the calendar of this month is completely overloaded with biennials, auctions and art fairs. Art Basel in Switzerland, which has been postponed from June to September, is also part of the long list of art events scheduled for September. However, if the West fails to get the epidemic under control very quickly, it is possible that all these events will get cancelled for good so there might be no art fairs, major auctions or biennials this year at all. The next few weeks and months will determine where the journey will go.

How will the auction houses cope with the profound global crisis and what’s their outlook in the aftermath of it? Most likely they will come out of this situation badly bruised but able to resume operations quickly. Some of their business is already being done digitally via online auctions and this shift will now get much more accentuated. But can an auction house exist without the exciting atmosphere of a live auction with a full auction room packed with art market players and their big egos? It’s hard to imagine that in the foreseeable future collectors will be willing to pay millions of dollars in online sales without seeing the artwork in the flesh. As an immediate reaction, auction houses have focused on private treaty sales, since the scheduled live auctions in May in New York are either postponed to June or entirely cancelled. Works of art that were planned for sale at the live auctions are now often transferred to the private sales department of the auction houses. However, the nature of the private sales as a slow business means auction houses will never be able to compensate their losses with private sales alone. The sales strategy for most auction houses short and mid-term, is a combination of private sales and online auctions.

Since in the future we might not be able to travel easily to visit an art fair or to see an exhibition of an artist we love, things will shift towards digitalisation and regional events. Travel restrictions or anxieties to travel might be severe. In the future we will see more virtual museums and gallery shows. Most galleries, art fairs and museums are already rushing to produce online viewing platforms. Galleries in particular are heavily investing in online viewing rooms for their collectors. Collectors will bid online for the art works they desire and watch the live stream of a discussion between their favorite curators and a gallerists on Instagram. As a collector, art lover and museum goer, you will have your art world in pocket format on your smart phone. You visit the MoMA New York on virtual reality tour (VR) and augmented reality (AR) based tools. No standard has as yet arisen from these efforts but it seems clear that these tools will change the way we experience art in this new paradigm of international visual culture and exchange.

Even if some of the above description of the state of the current Art World might be rather grim, I’m in general very positive that the art market will come out of this even stronger than before - but things might be very different. In what way, we don’t know. Only that it will be different. The virus won’t kill art and our curiosity for culture. When we look back at the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008/09 and the subsequent global financial crisis, the art market recovered quickly and already in 2011 prices for top quality artworks at auction and in private sales skyrocketed again.

Yes, the world is in lockdown but, on the positive side, we have time to spare and are forced to rethink our future as part of a global community. It’s a time for visions, not desperation. The corona crisis will change us as a society. It is up to us to make sure we come out of it more thoughtful, humble, sensitive and considerate. Art can play an important role in this, and I am confident that it will.

Author: Thomas Stauffer, Zurich, April 29, 2020

Author Introduction 

Thomas Stauffer has been a passionate art collector since his teenage years. With a keen eye for anticipating lasting market developments and an excellent worldwide network of contacts, he has made himself a name internationally for finding important artworks off-market in private collections. He previously held various senior management positions, inter alia with Starbucks Switzerland and Austria, and the Swiss Army. Thomas Stauffer has degrees in Economics and Human Resource Management as well as a post-graduate degree in Arts and Cultural Management.

Thomas Stauffer is the co-founder of Gerber Stauffer Fine Arts. Gerber Stauffer Fine Arts is an international dealership specialising in Modern, Post-War and contemporary art. We advise a select group of private and institutional clients on all aspects of building and managing their collections. Acting as agents for our clients or on own account, we buy and sell important works of art from the late 19th century to the present. Our main office with in-house research facilities and spacious viewing rooms is centrally located in Zurich, Switzerland.

（翻译：Gina Quan 权静静，编辑：罗书银）

（本文由作者授权于雅昌艺术网及艺术头条APP独家发布，未经授权禁止转载）