在新冠肺炎疫情蔓延的同时，全球金融市场遭遇了前所未有的“黑色星期一”，使得市场动荡下挫、风险加剧。在经济全球化的今天，这一形势同样对传统行业造成持续考验，且以前所未有的力量倒逼原有经营模式与从业理念的深层次变革。那么，疫情过后，历史将会重演，古玩市场10年周期将会显现，中国将会重新出现“和氏璧”和“拥有家财万贯不如宋钧一片”的现象。

While the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is spreading, the global financial market has encountered hitherto unknown "black Monday", which has made the market turbulence and risk increase. In today's economic globalization, this situation also poses a continuous test to the traditional industry, and forces the original business model and the deep-seated change of the business philosophy with unprecedented force. Then, after the epidemic, history will repeat, the 10-year cycle of antique market will appear, and the phenomenon of "he Shi Bi" and "owning a fortune is inferior to Song Jun" will reappear in China.

2018年年底古玩市场将接近崩盘，预计仅有百分之十左右的从业者能渡过难关，大部分古玩收藏品都跌至高峰期的30%左右；2018-2019为市场复苏期，新的资本将整合后重新进入古玩市场，古玩版块投资效应显现；2020古玩市场进入新的升温期，将达到另一个高峰期，市场重新进入投资和投机高峰状态。

At the end of 2018, the antique market will close to collapse, and only about 10% of the practitioners are expected to survive, with most of the antique collections falling to about 30% of the peak; 2018-2019 is the recovery period of the market, and new capital will be integrated and re entered the antique market, with the investment effect of the antique section appearing; 2020 is the new warming period of the antique market, which will reach another peak The market has returned to a peak of investment and speculation.

市场动荡期间，80%以上的实体店将关闭。未来当前模式的古玩店将可能消失，拥有高端藏品的高品位文化会所和低端的跳骚市场将成为主流。中、低端拍卖行80%以上将倒闭；留下几大高端及顶级拍卖行；外资拍卖行将合法进入国内，中外拍卖行市场表现将会是平分秋色；高仿品和现代艺术品拍卖公司将会出现，跟真品拍卖行同时共存，表现各有千秋。收藏品鉴定将规范化，鉴定标准透明化，收藏品等级划分将越来越明确。

During the market turmoil, more than 80% of physical stores will be closed. In the future, the current model of antique shops will probably disappear, high-grade cultural clubs with high-end collections and low-end tiaoshao market will become the mainstream. More than 80% of middle and low-end auction houses will be closed; several high-end and top-level auction houses will be left behind; foreign auction houses will enter China legally, and the market performance of Chinese and foreign auction houses will be equal; high-quality imitations and modern art auction companies will appear, coexisting with real auction houses, with their respective performances. Collection identification will be standardized, transparent, and the classification of collection level will be more and more clear.

随着中国家庭整体收入和品位提升，收藏群体不断扩大。超过50年以上的物品都将有人收藏；并且出现不同的收入群体将收藏不同的藏品；收藏阶层出现板块化移动。国家对古玩市场将越来越开放，珍品和精品艺术品公司都开始对藏品建立档案和留存交易记录；艺术品经纪和文化公司、艺术品金融公司将大量涌现，中、高端艺术品将都拥有身份证明。

With the improvement of the overall income and taste of Chinese families, the collection group continues to expand. More than 50 years of items will be collected; and there will be different income groups will collect different collections; the collection class appears plate movement. The country will be more and more open to the antique market, and precious and fine art companies will start to establish archives and keep transaction records for their collections; art brokers and cultural companies, art finance companies will emerge in large numbers, and medium and high-end art will have identity certificates.

随着财富新贵数量不断攀升，增量资金不断增加，艺术品的金融属性和文化属性的特点将不断凸显，未来将受到投资家和收藏家的追捧。收藏艺术品象征着一个人的文化品位和社会地位，是进入高层次文化圈的通行证。加之，房地产市场投资回报率大幅降低，全球股市、债市跳水，新兴富豪企业家为了自身资产的保值增值开始关注艺术品市场，增量资金大规模涌入定价尚不完善的艺术品拍卖市场，以期获得高收益率。

With the increasing number of new wealth and incremental capital, the characteristics of the financial and cultural attributes of art will continue to highlight, and will be sought after by investors and collectors in the future. Collection of works of art symbolizes a person's cultural taste and social status, and is the pass to enter the high-level cultural circle. In addition, the rate of return on investment in the real estate market has greatly decreased, and the global stock market and bond market have plunged. In order to maintain and increase the value of their assets, the newly rich entrepreneurs have begun to pay attention to the art market, and the incremental capital has poured into the art auction market with imperfect pricing in large scale, in order to obtain high yield.

2020年的古玩市场将又达到另一个高峰期，社会资金大量涌入市场。富有眼光的投资者低谷期买入的极品和珍品蒋增值百倍以上，精品、普品也将会爬坡式的升值。当市场认为艺术品行业处于“寒冬期”时，我们将注意力投向潜力巨大的艺术品行业未来发展空间。我们认为伴随着增量资金不断扩大，大众艺术品需求被释放，艺术品行业将快速发展，市场规模持续增长。

In 2020, the antique market will reach another peak, and a large number of social funds will flow into the market. The value of the best and rare products bought by the discerning investors in the low period will increase by more than 100 times, and the value of the high-quality and common products will also rise in a climbing way. When the market thinks that the art industry is in a "cold winter", we will focus on the potential development space of the art industry in the future. We believe that with the continuous expansion of incremental capital and the release of public art demand, the art industry will develop rapidly and the market scale will continue to grow.

富人具有巨额的财富，其社会责任和未来家族的遗产安排是无法回避的问题。艺术品资产由于其隐蔽性和价格的难以确定性，成为富人在资产配置中税收筹划和代际传承的必不可少的组成部分。现在流行这样一句话，就是钱多了就不是自己的了。收藏圈也有这样一句话，那就是收藏到了一定的程度，就不是为自己收藏了，而是为社会、为国家收藏。

The rich have huge wealth, their social responsibility and future family heritage arrangement are unavoidable problems. Because of its concealment and price uncertainty, art assets have become an essential part of tax planning and intergenerational inheritance for the rich in asset allocation. Now it's popular to say that if you have more money, it's not your own. There is also a saying in the collection circle that when the collection reaches a certain level, it is not for itself, but for the society and the country.

“谋定而后动，知止而有得”，是选择固守传统模式，还是分阶段、有策略的主动求变，这是切实把握市场形势后的商业考量。不可否认的是，藏家群体已经开始迭代更新，艺术品金融基金交易模式也已得到前所未有的重视，市场也已经在暗流涌动，2020将开启全新的视野。

"Plan and move, know and stop, and get", is to choose to stick to the traditional mode, or to take the initiative to change in stages and strategies, which is the commercial consideration after grasping the market situation. It is undeniable that the group of collectors has begun to update iteratively, the transaction mode of art financial fund has been paid unprecedented attention, the market has also been surging in the undercurrent, and 2020 will open a new vision.