我国的古代艺术品制作，历史悠久，但是，历史上某些人出于各种动机，对古董作了大量复制品或伪品，真真假假，鱼目混珠。为了保护祖国的文物，研究古董的演变规律，所以，便需要对它的制作年代和真伪及其艺术水平的高下进行研究，其研究的过程就叫作“鉴定”，也就是找专业的考试做一个细致的参考与评估是否到代以及是真品还是仿品。

China's ancient art production has a long history. However, some people in history made a large number of replicas or forgeries of antiques for various motives, true or false, and mixed. In order to protect the cultural relics of the motherland and study the evolution law of antiques, it is necessary to study its production age, authenticity and artistic level. The process of research is called "identification", that is, to find a professional examination to make a detailed reference and evaluation of whether it is a real or a fake.

纵观古今，我国各个时期经历了风风雨雨，几千年历史的考验，源远流长，琳琅满目，而发展至今，艺术品不仅是商品交换的媒介，更是各个时代经济、政治制度的文化科学与技术发展的缩影。Throughout the ancient and modern times, China has experienced ups and downs in various periods, thousands of years of history, with a long history and a dazzling array. Up to now, art is not only the medium of commodity exchange, but also the epitome of the cultural, scientific and technological development of economic and political systems in various times.

随着艺术品市场日趋火爆，越来越多的藏友开始集中关注艺术品行业，艺术品的价值一般是按照存世量来决定的，但存世量是一个难以预料的不确定数，这个数是在不断变化的，因此收藏在民间的艺术品根本无法统计，艺术品市场为什么这么的火，为什么那么多的收藏家与投资者热衷于艺术品的收藏与投资。

With the increasing popularity of the art market, more and more collectors begin to focus on the art industry. The value of art is generally determined by the amount of life, but the amount of life is an unpredictable uncertainty, which is constantly changing. Therefore, it is impossible to count the art collected in the folk. Why is the art market so hot and why so many Collectors and investors are keen on art collection and investment.

一：看藏品的品相 。

1： Look at the collection.

二：看藏品的历史价值。

2： Look at the historical value of the collection.

三：看藏品的存世量与稀有度。

3： Look at the quantity and rarity of the collection.

我国目前艺术品市场在维持了八年之久的颓势之后，到了如今的2020年将会如何发展呢？就以上问题，通过对一些相关资料的整理与研究，归纳出收藏界内资深人士的看法如下：

After eight years of decline, how will the art market develop in 2020? On the above issues, through the collation and research of some relevant materials, the author sums up the views of senior people in the collection sector as follows:

一：对于2020年的艺术品市场来说，属于精品的艺术品必将会成为艺术市场的导向，这一点是毋庸置疑的。以投资来讲，虽说股市、房产与艺术品市场都是人们不错的选择，但是在近几年人们对艺术品投资已经远远超过了对股市以及房产的投资，艺术品已经成为了人们投资的首要选择。相关专家明确指出艺术品投资中最受欢迎的是书法字画类。

1： For the art market in 2020, the fine art will become the guide of the art market, which is undoubted. In terms of investment, although the stock market, real estate and art market are all good choices for people, but in recent years, people's investment in art has far exceeded the investment in the stock market and real estate, and art has become the first choice for people to invest. Relevant experts clearly pointed out that the most popular art investment is calligraphy, calligraphy and painting.

其次为瓷器、青铜器、古玩玉器等而最后的则是艺术品的衍生物，更是有相关专家预测出，我国2020年的艺术品交易市场有望超过千亿元的交易额，而在拍卖之外的艺术品市场其交易额也有可能达到三百亿之多。由此可见2020年的艺术品市场依然会处于一个持续上升的趋势。

The second is porcelain, bronze, antiques and jade, and the last is the derivative of art. Some experts predict that in 2020, China's art market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, while in the art market other than the auction, the trading volume is likely to reach more than 30 billion yuan. This shows that the art market in 2020 will still be in a continuous upward trend.

二：对于2020年艺术品市场的价格走势来看，在2020年中艺术品市场的价格会逐渐趋向于理性化。有业内专业人士所分析得出；根据刚刚过去的2019年的艺术品市场经济状况来看，2020年的艺术品市场的价格会趋于理性化，艺术品市场着重点也将会发生质的转变，由原来的固定经济模式开始转变为注重其艺术品的文化内涵、学术研究等，开始以艺术品价值来判断其价格，尤其是以书法绘画市场为主，市场开始引导各位收藏们，更多的关注属于我国主流文化的传统类艺术作品。

2： As for the price trend of the art market in 2020, the price of the art market will gradually tend to be rational in 2020. According to the analysis of professionals in the industry, according to the just past 2019 art market economic situation, the price of the art market in 2020 will tend to be rational, and the focus of the art market will also undergo a qualitative change, from the original fixed economic model to focus on the cultural connotation and academic research of the art, and start to judge the value of the art Its price, especially in the calligraphy and painting market, the market began to guide the collectors to pay more attention to the traditional art works belonging to the mainstream culture of our country.

三：在2020年初期，我国的艺术品市场已经有了回暖的迹象。虽说早在2018年时有专家误判我国艺术品市场稳定，从而在2019年时出台相关的政策来维持市场经济的稳定，但是由不同迹象表明，我国的艺术品市场在2020年已经开始回暖，例如民间艺术馆和博物馆的增加、与艺术品相关的文化机构成立、以及大多数的古玩商家们已经度过所谓的寒冬，在拍卖市场中一些属于上个世纪的顶尖书法、绘画家的艺术作品受到收藏者的追捧等。

3： At the beginning of 2020, the art market in China has shown signs of recovery. Although some experts mistakenly judged the stability of China's art market as early as 2018, and thus issued relevant policies to maintain the stability of the market economy in 2019, there are different signs that China's art market has begun to recover in 2020, such as the increase of folk art museums and Museum, the establishment of cultural institutions related to art, and the majority of antique businesses Through the so-called cold winter, some of the top calligraphers and painters in the auction market of the last century are sought after by collectors.

最后，在2020年的艺术品市场中，其艺术品的收藏者也开始逐渐的由理智走向成熟化。我国的艺术品收藏家们在经过长大八年之久的历练、考验、磨合以及相关文化知识的培养等，已经逐渐走出一批有理性走向成熟的收藏家们，也正是由于他们的出现，才是艺术品市场持续平稳发展的有力保证。对于艺术品来说它的升值与保值的能力是毋庸置疑的，但是在这其中最为重要的还是需要可以发现它们的眼睛，而在2020年的艺术品市场中已经具备了这双“眼睛”，2020年的艺术品市场也定会持续繁荣。

Finally, in the art market in 2020, the art collectors are gradually moving from rational to mature. After eight years of experience, test, running in and cultivation of relevant cultural knowledge, art collectors in China have gradually stepped out of a group of rational and mature collectors. It is precisely because of their appearance that the art market can continue to develop smoothly. There is no doubt about the ability of appreciation and preservation of art, but the most important thing is to find their eyes. In 2020, the art market already has these eyes. In 2020, the art market will continue to flourish.

艺术品投资在当下，既充满机遇，又存在各种风险，如果想要全面的投资艺术品，就一定对艺术品投资有充分的认识。从行业属性来看，艺术投资如果把投资周期拉长，那么相对于其它投资项目而言，艺术品投资更安全，增值效果更明显。

At present, art investment is full of both opportunities and risks. If you want to invest in art comprehensively, you must have a full understanding of art investment. From the perspective of industry attributes, if the investment cycle of art investment is extended, then compared with other investment projects, art investment is safer and the value-added effect is more obvious.