中国作为文明古国，拥有博大精深的文化与智慧，在一段时间里因为贫穷而被忽视，只有中国经济、精神富裕了，人们能用“忠、孝、礼、义、廉、耻、信、勇”来要求个人思想和行为，承载着中国文化的艺术品就将成为世界的潮流。

As an ancient civilized country, China has a profound culture and wisdom, which has been ignored for a period of time because of poverty. Only China's economy and spirit are rich. People can use "loyalty, filial piety, courtesy, righteousness, honesty, shame, trust and courage" to demand personal thoughts and behaviors. The works of art bearing Chinese culture will become the trend of the world.

 

 

 

2020，新冠肺炎的到来把我们打了个措手不及，原本规划好的各项工作，现在不得的不暂时搁浅。疫情对各行各业造成的损失，目前虽没有确切的官方数据，但影响和损失确实是在一天天加剧。单就艺术品行业来说，蘇富比、佳士得、日本横滨、香港巴塞尔艺术展、台北典亚艺博会等众多拍卖机构及展览机构推迟延期的公示早已纷纷告出。

2020, the novel coronavirus pneumonia be taken by surprise. We must not be temporarily stranded. Although there is no official data on the losses caused by the epidemic in all walks of life, the impact and losses are increasing day by day. In terms of the art industry alone, many auction institutions and exhibition institutions, such as Sotheby's, Christie's, Yokohama, Hong Kong Basel art exhibition, Taipei Dianya Art Expo, have already announced the delayed publicity.

 

 

 

回顾2019年的国内艺术品市场，不管是经营者还是投资者，其心情都可谓是复杂的。新的2020年已经开始了，然而面临的是严峻的疫情，国民GDP必会受到影响，艺术品市场则无疑被每个人寄予了更多的想象和期许。对于收藏爱好者来说，趋势才是唯一的朋友，只有懂得看大势的人才能有巨大收获。

Looking back at the domestic art market in 2019, the mood of both operators and investors is complex. The new year 2020 has already begun, but what we are facing is a severe epidemic situation, the national GDP will be affected, and the art market is undoubtedly put forward more imagination and expectations by everyone. For collectors, trend is the only friend. Only those who know how to see the general trend can get great results.

 

 

 

“蝴蝶效应”中，蝴蝶轻轻地振动翅膀，便可能为整个系统带来巨大的连锁反应。而2020年初爆发的新冠状病毒疫情，俨然不是一个“蝴蝶振翅”那么简单，其影响范围超出国土边界，更为整个人类发展生存与发展敲起了警钟。反观全球艺术市场，这场疫情又带来怎样的影响呢？看看外媒如何说。

In the "Butterfly Effect", the butterfly gently vibrates its wings, which may bring a huge chain reaction to the whole system. However, the outbreak of new coronavirus at the beginning of 2020 is not as simple as a "butterfly fluttering its wings", its influence range is beyond the border of land, and it also sets a warning for the survival and development of the whole human development. Looking at the global art market, what is the impact of this epidemic? Let's see what foreign media say.

 

 

 

2015年，莫迪利亚尼(Amedeo Modigliani)的《侧卧的裸女》以1.704亿美元（约10.8亿元人民币）的价格成交，买家是一位名叫刘益谦的中国藏家；随着中国成为全球电影产业的第二大市场，对全球票房收入将带来巨大影响；近年来，全球交响乐团都早早就筹划好赴中国演出的计划，把中国市场看作是票房收益的重要来源，并试图将中国的富裕阶层培养成他们的捐赠人......不难看出，无论是个人财富，还是市场整体生态，中国的一举一动都牵动着全球艺术世界中各个要素的发展与平衡。

In 2015, Amedeo Modigliani's naked woman lying on one's side was sold for 170.4 million US dollars (about 1.08 billion yuan). The buyer is a Chinese collector named Liu Yiqian. With China becoming the second largest market in the global film industry, it will have a huge impact on the global box office revenue. In recent years, the global symphony orchestras have long planned to go to China to perform in the Chinese market It is an important source of box office revenue and tries to cultivate China's rich class into their donors... It is not hard to see that, whether it is personal wealth or the overall market ecology, every move of China affects the development and balance of various elements in the global art world.

 

 

 

 

而现在，由于中国正处于新冠状病毒的“抗疫”战中，对于全球艺术经济的交易锐减，使之处于巨大的不确定性中。出于对疫情的控制和防御，院线电影全部下线，交响乐巡演被迫推迟。香港巴塞尔艺术博览会取消，而考虑到中国藏家的现实情况，地球另一边的纽约的重要春拍也为之延后。

Now, because China is in the "anti epidemic" war of the new coronavirus, the trade in the global art economy has declined sharply, making it in a huge uncertainty. Out of the control and defense of the epidemic, all the cinema films were offline, and the symphony tour was forced to be postponed. The Basel Art Fair in Hong Kong was cancelled, and considering the reality of Chinese collectors, the important spring photos in New York on the other side of the earth were postponed.

 

 

 

根据巴塞尔艺博会（Art Basel）和瑞银全球艺术市场报告（UBS Global Art Market Report）去年的统计，中国已于2018年成为全球艺术品第三大市场，贡献了全球艺术品销售19%的份额，高达670亿美元。（美国占44%,英国占比21%）

According to the statistics of Art Basel and UBS global art market report last year, China has become the third largest art market in the world in 2018, accounting for 19% of the global art sales, reaching US $67 billion. (US 44%, UK 21%)

 

 

 

 

那么疫情过后艺术行业状况如何？

So what about the art industry after the epidemic?

确切的说：疫情过后，艺术品行业将迎来报复性增长，原因有以下几个方面：

Specifically, after the outbreak, the art industry will see retaliatory growth for the following reasons:

 

 

一、从宏观上讲：国家将转危为机、深化结构性改革（这在2月15日博智宏观论坛上得到结果），国家需要GDP，百姓需要就业，国际需要中国制造，因此国家会放宽货币政策，刺激经济。市场上的货币多了，自然流向中国艺术品市场的钱也会增加。（前段时间央行已经投放了巨量的货币）

1、 From a macro perspective: the country will turn crisis into opportunity and deepen structural reform (this was achieved at Bozhi macro Forum on February 15). The country needs GDP, the people need employment, and the world needs made in China. Therefore, the country will relax monetary policy and stimulate the economy. With more money on the market, the money flowing naturally to the Chinese art market will also increase. (the central bank has invested a lot of money in the past)

 

 

 

二、从微观上讲：国内艺术品市场会随着经济增长而增长，也就是生产恢复之后，资金循环并形成沉淀资金时，将是中国艺术品市场的活跃期。时间大概在恢复生产后的一个季度至半年开始。同时在恢复生产这段时间，因为货品紧缺，导致其价格有所增长，比如现在的玉石价格已经较过年前增长了许多，加上后续经济增长的推进，所以国内中国艺术品市场会随着经济增长而增长。

2、 From the micro perspective: the domestic art market will grow with the economic growth, that is to say, after the recovery of production, the capital circulation and the formation of precipitation funds will be the active period of the Chinese art market. The time is about one quarter to half a year after the resumption of production. At the same time, during the period of resumption of production, due to the shortage of goods, the price of jade has increased. For example, the price of jade has increased a lot compared with that before the new year. With the promotion of subsequent economic growth, the domestic art market of China will grow with the economic growth.

 

 

 

三、从国际推广中国文化讲：在过去中国经济大发展的30年里，让世界知道了中国，和了解了一部分中国文化。这次的疫情，虽然使部分国家媒体及百姓对中国有所成见，但是使国外更多有思想、会思考的人士看到了中国政府和百姓面对疫情的团结精神，从而更激发对中国文化兴趣与了解的意愿。由此又会有一批外国友人因了解而喜爱中国，加上中国经济的恢复，将再次迎来中国文化热潮，作为中国文化的一部分中国艺术品还能不热吗？

3、 From the perspective of international promotion of Chinese culture: in the past 30 years of China's great economic development, we have made the world know China and some Chinese culture. Although the epidemic made some national media and people have prejudices about China, it made more thoughtful and thoughtful people abroad see the unity spirit of the Chinese government and people in the face of the epidemic, so as to stimulate more interest in and understanding of Chinese culture. Therefore, a group of foreign friends will love China because of their understanding, and the recovery of China's economy will usher in a new upsurge of Chinese culture. Can Chinese art, as a part of Chinese culture, not be hot?

 

 

 

四、从艺术品物联网运营发展的角度讲：这次抗疫之所以这么顺利，除了政府决策对、百姓积极配合的团结精神以外，还有深入百姓生活的互联网。这次居家防疫期间，迫使一部分爱好收藏的人群成为艺术品网络消费新粉。但是还需要完善网络销售的管理办法，否则会带来更多的负面效应。

4、 From the perspective of the operation and development of the art Internet of things: in addition to the unity spirit of the government's decision-making and the people's active cooperation, there is also the Internet that goes deep into people's lives. During the period of home epidemic prevention, some people who are fond of collecting are forced to become new fans of online consumption of art. But we still need to improve the management of network sales, otherwise it will bring more negative effects.

 

 

 

五、“参与群体变了”，收藏变成投资，文化产业就是要让所有人参与进来！尤其是市场上引领潮流的不再是传统藏家，而是呼风唤雨的金融资本。中国真正意义的藏家本来就微乎其微，新的财富阶层又把仅存的行家挤走了，行家如果手上货全卖掉了，也就出局了。传统收藏群体加速衰减，注重投资效益的群体越来越庞大，资本大佬和热钱已成为市场主角。

5、 "The participation group has changed", collection has become investment, and the cultural industry is to let everyone participate! In particular, the market is no longer leading the trend of traditional collectors, but the financial capital. The true meaning of China's collectors is very small, and the new wealth class has squeezed out the remaining experts. If the experts sell all their goods, they will be out of the game. With the rapid decline of traditional collection groups, more and more people pay attention to the investment efficiency, and the capital tycoons and hot money have become the main players in the market.

 

 

 

在西方的财富整合中，艺术品作为一种资产配置的形式，被称作安全的资产管理方式而深入人心，不同于获利目标和期限明确的金融产品，艺术品资产化是将艺术品作为有效资产，区别于一般标准化资产标的物的另类投资。在胡润、福布斯排行榜上，中国前50位的富豪参与艺术品市场的大概不超过3个。而在西方发达国家，80%的富豪会将30%的资产配置为艺术品。

In Western wealth integration, art, as a form of asset allocation, is known as a safe asset management method, which is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Unlike financial products with clear profit objectives and time limits, art asset is an alternative investment that takes art as an effective asset and distinguishes it from general standardized assets. In the Hurun and Forbes rankings, the top 50 richest people in China have no more than three participation in the art market. In the western developed countries, 80% of the rich will allocate 30% of their assets to art.

 

 

 

文化艺术品列入家庭资产的配置表也必定是未来发展趋势。国内有个机构对艺术购买者做过调查，得出的结论是：国内高收入阶层中过20%的人群有收藏习惯，他们大约可将超过其财产1%的部分投入到艺术品收藏。假设全国个人储蓄总额其中16万亿元中有50%属于高收入阶层，则意味着，至少每年800亿元资金在理论上是可以用于艺术品的。

Cultural works of art must also be listed in the distribution table of family assets in the future. An institution in China has investigated art buyers and concluded that over 20% of the high-income people in China have collection habits, and they can invest more than 1% of their property in art collection. Assuming that 50% of the 16 trillion yuan of the total national personal savings belong to the high-income class, it means that at least 80 billion yuan per year can be used for art in theory.

 

 

 

艺术品投资专家指出：“艺术品金融是一切围绕艺术市场主体所进行的资金融通和信用活动，它的意义在于运用金融资本的现代理念和运作方式，来推动艺术品产业的升级换代。由于金融的杠杆性质，在操作过程中可以大大提高艺术品市场的效率，同时有效地控制相关的风险。”

Art investment experts pointed out: "art finance is all the financing and credit activities around the main body of the art market. Its significance lies in using the modern concept and operation mode of financial capital to promote the upgrading of art industry. Because of the leverage nature of finance, it can greatly improve the efficiency of the art market in the process of operation and effectively control the relevant risks. "

 

 

 

目前的艺术品市场，本身也在时代洪流的冲击下面临着变革与转型，在面对新的经济形势下，自发寻求着新模式新渠道。比如，卢浮宫在经济压力之下，与迪拜合作建立分馆从而获得租金缓解经济压力，再比如，增设互联网上的数字化服务项目等方式达到盈利点。随着未来我国经济增长模式的改变与升级，大环境已将文化与经济紧密联系在一起，处于经济发展中心的古玩行业，则更需要积极调配资源、参与这种新发展，艺术品金融化、互联网化势在必行。

At present, the art market itself is also facing changes and transformation under the impact of the times. In the face of the new economic situation, it spontaneously seeks new models and new channels. For example, under the economic pressure, the Louvre cooperates with Dubai to establish a branch to obtain rent to relieve the economic pressure, and for example, to increase digital service projects on the Internet to achieve profitability. With the change and upgrading of China's economic growth model in the future, the environment has closely linked culture and economy. The antique industry, which is in the center of economic development, needs to actively allocate resources and participate in this new development. The financial and Internet-based art is imperative.

 

 

 

疫情过后，中国经济上半年可能会受到影响，呈现短期的下行格局，但下半年开始，中国经济必将重新恢复到原来的增长速度中去；而且中国经济将会以更快的速度转型成依赖于科学技术发展的国家，在科技发展的同时，文化产业比重大大增加。另一方面，面对这次疫情，央行在第一时间内释放1.2万亿流动性，以降低中小微企业的融资成本。

After the epidemic, China's economy may be affected in the first half of the year, showing a short-term downward pattern. But from the second half of the year, China's economy will return to the original growth rate; and China's economy will transform into a country relying on science and technology development at a faster speed, with the development of science and technology, the proportion of cultural industry greatly increased. On the other hand, in the face of the epidemic, the central bank released 1.2 trillion liquidity in the first time to reduce the financing cost of small and medium-sized micro enterprises.